Alh. Abdulbaki Ibrahim, a Public Affairs Analyst gives a situation report
Kebbi 2027 is not just an ordinary election.
INEC final list for January 16, 2027 governorship dropped in Birnin Kebbi like thunderclap:
APC’s Dr. Nasir Idris, Kauran Gwandu — cleared. ADC’s Abubakar Malami, SAN — cleared. ZLP, SDP — cleared. PDP — None Listed / Excluded. Ghost list.
INEC set Saturday, October 24 deadline for parties to report omissions. Between the next 2 days, Kebbi is political courtroom.
PRESENT SITUATION: WHEN ELDERS ENDORSE ENEMY
This is how PDP died in Kebbi — not by defeat, but by division.
A group of PDP elders led by Lt. Gen. Ishaya Bamaiyi (Rtd), the Zuru-born former Army Chief, walked into Government House and endorsed Idris for second term. Bamaiyi, with medals clinking, said Idris built roads, hospitals, schools in Zuru Emirate — areas even PDP governors forgot.
But State Chairman Usman Bello Suru rejected it angrily: “We already have candidates for all positions. Those elders are on their own.”
Elders endorsing enemy while chairman disowns elders? That is PDP in Kebbi.
Worse, PDP’s own 2023 governorship candidate, Maj. Gen. Bello Sarkin Yaki (Rtd), also backed Idris, saying coldly: “No alternative.” When your own general says no alternative, your party has vanished before INEC removes you.
A youth leader in Yauri told me:
PDP is now history in Kebbi. We are learning, we won’t vote them”.
APC GAINS: THE ZURU HURRICANE
While PDP is arguing ,APC is harvesting.
Mass defection hurricane in Zuru Emirate — PDP and ADC ward chairmen, women leaders, youths — led by Bala Maga Zuru, defected to APC. Not one or two — 21 LGAs — ADC’s Reps and Assembly candidates abandoned Malami’s ship, citing Idris’s Kaura policies.
At the decamping in Zuru Township Stadium, one defector shouted: “Malami gave us law books, Kauran Gwandu gave us roads!”
That line went viral in Kebbi WhatsApp groups.
ADC BUILDUP: MALAMI’S 600-MAN LEGAL BATTALION
But don’t write off Malami. Former AGF is not a pushover — he is federal masquerader with legal mind and war chest.
Last week, he inaugurated 600+ campaign council members — lawyers, retired judges, former Perm Secs, youths in blue caps. Malami looked at them and said: “Kebbi needs a senior advocate, not senior farmer.”
Reply to Kauran Gwandu’s agrarian revolution? That is the fight.
WHO HAS UPPER HAND? AND WHY JANUARY 16 CAN STILL BURN
On paper, Governor Nasir Idris (APC) has upper hand. He controls state machinery, enjoys endorsement from opposition generals, and benefits from PDP’s ballot absence — free 30% votes floating.
But Malami is formidable. He knows INEC law like Quran. He knows Abuja. And PDP’s absence may become his blessing — angry PDP voters may vote ADC as protest vote against APC’s “Bamaiyi endorsement politics.”
A retired High Court judge in Birnin Kebbi whispered to me:
“If PDP goes to court after Oct 24 and wins, election may nullify. If PDP doesn’t go, their voters will revenge to vote ADC
Either way, Kauran Gwandu can’t sleep.”
HOW TO CONTAIN/SUBDUE
BEFORE GHOST LIST BECOMES COURT CASE
For APC:
Don’t celebrate PDP exclusion. The Bamaiyi endorsement you enjoy today can become litigation tomorrow. Fulfill your promise: “Equal treatment of defectors.” And address security criticism, farmers in Zuru and Yauri axis still sleep with one eye open. Roads without security is decoration.
For ADC:
Malami must prove politics is not revenge for losing AGF seat.
Kebbi farmers don’t eat SAN title. Focus on youth unemployment — Argungu fishing boys, Yauri river boys, Zuru farming girls — they want jobs, not legal grammar. If you make it vendetta, Kauran Gwandu will call you “Abuja politician.”
For INEC:
Clarify PDP omission quickly. October 24 deadline is not forever. Kebbi already has history of peaceful elections — don’t make it Zamfara 2019 where Supreme Court cancelled APC victory.
A clear statement now avoids post-election litigation that could nullify January 16.
For Traditional Rulers:
Emir of Gwandu, Argungu, Yauri — convene peace pact now. Kebbi is Land of Equity. Let Malami and Kauran Gwandu swear before you: no thuggery, no vote-buying with rice, no abuse of Lake Argungu festival for campaign.
Kebbi January 16 is not just APC vs ADC — it is test of whether ballot ghost can vote. Idris has roads and generals, Malami has law and money, PDP has ghost.
Watch Zuru, watch Yauri, watch Federal High Court Birnin Kebbi. That’s where result will come from.
