By Nkechi Eze
Airbus has projected a major eastward shift in the global aviation after-sales services market, with China set to become the largest market by value over the next two decades, driven by fleet expansion, ageing aircraft, and accelerated digital transformation across the sector.
According to Airbus’ latest global services forecast released on Thursday, the value of China’s after-sales aviation services market is expected to grow sharply from $24.8 billion in 2025 to $63.8 billion by 2044, underscoring the country’s rising strategic importance in the global aviation ecosystem.
The report noted that growth in China’s after-sales services will be supported by key segments including off-wing maintenance, on-wing maintenance, modifications and upgrades, digital and connectivity solutions, as well as training services. Among these, off-wing maintenance remains the dominant segment, largely driven by an increasing number of shop visits as aircraft fleets mature. Airbus projected that the market value of off-wing maintenance in China will expand from $17 billion in 2025 to $44.8 billion by 2044, making it the largest contributor to overall after-sales growth.
On-wing maintenance, which covers routine activities ranging from frequent light inspections to heavy aircraft checks, is also expected to record steady growth in line with the expanding fleet. The report estimated that this segment will increase from $3 billion in 2025 to $6.8 billion by 2044, reflecting sustained demand for regular maintenance services.
Digital and connectivity services were identified as the fastest-growing segment within the after-sales market. Designed to enable smarter and more connected airline operations, these solutions span predictive maintenance, fuel-efficient flight paths, and enhanced passenger experience. Airbus projected that the value of the digital and connectivity market will rise from $1.4 billion in 2025 to $5.1 billion in 2044.
The aircraft manufacturer noted that airlines in China are accelerating their digital transformation journeys, taking concrete steps toward building an interconnected aviation ecosystem. Over 9,000 aircraft in China are expected to be equipped with in-flight connectivity services, enabling more efficient operations on the ground and in the air, as well as across the entire aircraft lifecycle. Airbus estimated that digital technology-enabled operations could help airlines save more than $2.2 billion, while fuel cost reductions driven by digital optimisation could amount to $5.7 billion. Passengers, the report added, will also benefit from significantly improved onboard experiences.
Airbus further highlighted that China is currently the largest market for the company in terms of aircraft fleet size worldwide. The year 2025 marked a period of strong recovery and growth for the Chinese aviation market, led primarily by robust domestic demand. Passenger volumes grew by 17 percent compared to the pre-pandemic year of 2019, while international traffic continued its upward momentum, reaching more than 90 percent recovery from 2019 levels.
The forecast, cited by the Global Times, reinforces expectations that China will remain a central driver of global aviation growth, not only in aircraft deliveries but increasingly in high-value after-sales services that sustain airline operations and profitability over the long term.
