By Nkechi Eze
The Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo SAN, has unveiled the 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) in Abuja. This prediction is a vital tool that provides insights into Nigeria’s upcoming climate outlook, helping to mitigate climate risks and enhance adaptation strategies across various sectors.
With the theme ‘Early Warnings for a Climate-Resilient Aviation Industry’, the SCP report forecasts unusually early and intense rainfall across most parts of Nigeria in 2025.
The onset of rain is predicted to be delayed over the northern and central states of Plateau as well as parts of Kaduna, Niger, Benue, Nasarawa, Taraba, Adamawa, and Kwara. While early onset is expected over the southern states of Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Anambra, and sections of Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Lagos, Edo, Enugu, Imo, and Ebonyi. The rest of the country is predicted to have a normal onset.
The predicted end-of-rainy season compared to the long-term average indicates that parts of Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa, Plateau, Bauchi, Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Taraba, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, FCT, Ekiti, and Ondo states are expected to be early. A delayed end of the season is expected over parts of Kaduna, Nasarawa, Benue, Lagos, Kwara, Taraba, Oyo, Ogun, Cross River, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Ebonyi, Anambra, and Enugu states.
During the April-May-June (AMJ) season, there is a likelihood of a severe dry spell of above 15 days after the establishment of rainfall in Oyo state (Saki, Iseyin, Ogbomosho, Atisbo, Orelope, Itesiwaju, Olorunsogo, Kajola, Iwajowa and Ori Ire). Moderate dry spell that may last up to 15 days is likely to occur in Ekiti, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Anambra, Imo, Abia, Cross River, Delta, Bayelsa, and Akwa Ibom states in the south. However, for the northern states, a severe dry spell that may last up to 21 days is predicted for the June-July-August (JJA) season of 2025.
The Little Dry Season (LDS), also known as ‘August Break’ is predicted to begin by late July and would be severe only in parts of Lagos and Ogun states. The number of days with little or no rainfall will range between 27 to 40 days.
Moderate LDS effect is expected over parts of Ogun, Oyo, and Ekiti states. Osun, Oyo, Kwara, and parts of Ondo north are likely to experience light or mild Little Dry Season.
Temperatures are expected to be generally above the long-term average across the country. Both daytime and nighttime temperatures are predicted to be warmer than the long-term average over most parts of the country in January, February, March, and May 2025. However, April day and nighttime temperatures are predicted to be generally cooler than normal, while warmer than normal temperatures are likely over most of the northern states.
According to the minister, The SCP document is a critical tool for informed decision-making.
“It offers insights into expected weather and climate patterns, equipping various sectors with the foresight needed to plan, mitigate risks, and harness opportunities. Agriculture, disaster risk management, health, marine operations, transport—and especially aviation—are among the many domains that will benefit from this invaluable resource and advisory”, he said.
The Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Dr. Ibrahim Abubakar Kana, mni, in his welcome address, said that the accompanying summary SCP document for policymakers, translations of the SCP into Hausa, Igbo, Yoruba and Pidgin languages, including a comprehensive report on the State of the Climate in Nigeria for 2024 underscore the Ministry’s and NiMet’s commitment to inclusivity, accessibility, and ensuring that the information reaches even the most remote communities. “Today’s session is particularly special because it represents our dedication to public engagement, ensuring that the knowledge we generate benefits communities across all 36 states of the federation and the FCT”, he said.
The Director General and Chief Executive Officer of NiMet, Prof Charles Anosike said that the Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) is perishable just like other weather and climate predictions, and requires actors to uptake the information, utilize it, and provide feedback for evaluation and improvement of the document.
Professor Anosike, expressed his heartfelt gratitude to the Chairmen of the Senate and House Committees on Aviation for their unwavering support and commitment to the agency’s progress.
“My appreciation goes to the Members of the Senate, and House of Representatives and Excellencies-Governors in attendance and/or their representatives for accepting our invitation and gracing this important event. NiMet relies on your constituencies and States for subsequent downscaling of the Seasonal Climate Prediction for maximum impact at the last mile”, he concluded.
